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CLIMATE CHANGE AND SALMON STOCKS MEETING, VACOUVER, 27 OCT. 1999 PACIFIC FISHERIES RESOURCE CONSERVATION COUNCIL- 590 –800 Burrard Street, Vancouver V6Z 2G7 Tel: (604) 775-5621 Fax: (604) 775-5622, E-mail: info@fish.bc.ca Web site: www.fish.bc.ca PFRCC was established Sept. 1998-say they are at the early stage of evolving into a forceful champion for salmon and their habitat. Established by Federal Government as an independent body, which would act as a public watchdog agency with no vested interest, except the health of the fish and their habitat. Chairman is Hon. John A. Fraser; Council members include Mark Angelo, Mary-Sue Atkinson, Murray Chatwin, Terry Glavin, Dr. Paul LeBlond, Dr. Rick Routledge, Don Ryan and Dr. Carl Walters. Ex-officio Dr. Dick Beamish, DFO and Fred Fortier, Aboriginal Fisheries Commission. JOHN FRASER: Climate change is a subject of intense political debate, which has been going on for a long time, from Rio de Janeiro in 1992 to Kyoto in 1997 when Canada agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. There is a lot of unpleasant opposition to this by a small coterie of scientists and organizations in the US and Canada and some elements of industry that oppose the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. They have waged a full blast campaign since 1992 and it has been successful. See for example the book by Ross Gilspan, The Heat is On. In an Orwellian inversion of reality, people like Terence Corcoran, a columnist in The National Post, promote junk science, or talk like Dan Quayle who says the problem is not pollution but impurities in the water and air. Imperial Oil opposes the Kyoto Treaty and says human activity may not be a factor. But there is evidence we cannot disregard. A global experiment second only to nuclear war is going on. Tropical forests are dying back and the Amazon Basin could be a desert by 2050. The boreal forest and Arctic tundra have switched from being a sink for carbon dioxide to being a source of it. There has been an 8.2 Fahrenheit temperature rise in the ocean this century. Conditions on the California coast have changed and there is much less zooplankton. There are some signs of a slight change in attitude, for example, a newspaper in Alberta showed signs of a change in approach in an article on Oct. 18, which states there may be a problem. But the Financial Post condemned David Anderson for saying climate change is a problem. It took 3.8 billion years of evolution to make this planet livable and humans have in only the last 150 years created this global warming situation. There is some hope in the Throne Speech where environment has gained new prominence. Henry Hengeveld, Environment Canada, "Climate Change and the Ocean Environment-Understanding the Science": The article mentioned by John Fraser was in the Calgary Herald. There is basic science behind the concept of climate change. The evidence comes from analysis of Antarctic ice cores which shows that changes in carbon dioxide build-up is linked to temperature change. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 30% higher now than in the last millions of years. There is a huge increase in methane gases also. As the climate warms, the El Nino system will prevail. Globally, 1998 was the warmest year since we began keeping records and the 1990’s the warmest decade. Changes in the last 30 years are unprecedented in the last 1000 years. Natural variabilities cannot explain all the changes; in the ocean there have been changes in deep and surface circulation. In BC there will be modest temperature changes on the coast; it will be warmer, maybe snowier. It will be drier in the interior and there will be lower stream run off. Some models show more intense winter storms but fewer on the coast. Dr. Brian Shuter, University of Toronto, "Climate and the Life History and Zoogeography of Fish." Did not take notes as his talk concerned mostly lake fish in Ontario. Spoke of the connection between temperature and spawning. Said salmon prefer 11 to 15 degree temperature. Dr. Richard (Dick) Beamish, DFO, Biological Station, Nanaimo. There is need for a strategy to manage salmon under climate change conditions. It is difficult to forecast what will happen to salmon and what will be the ecosystem effects of climate change or, as Russian scientists call it and I prefer the term, what kind of "ecosystem re-organizations" will take place? They will be extensive and related to climate change. Global warming is a serious threat. Catches are at historic high levels in the North Pacific but in Canada are at historic lows. Sardines, hake and mackerel have all moved north. There are changes in the percentage of wild and hatchery salmon; we’re replacing wild with hatchery. Coho marine survival in the Strait of Georgia, Puget Sound and off the coast of Washington and Oregon has declined. This started in the late 1980’s and synchronizes with climate change. (Showed a graph correlating salmon catch declines and climate change.) Talked of changes in mid-ocean and coastal temperatures. Said must do 2 things without fail: protect forest habitat and respect marine habitat. Comments and Questions: Craig Orr: If fish hatch sooner they will not be in sync with insect production, they will be smaller as go out to ocean and there will be lethal effects. This already may be part of low abundance. Bob Rezansoff: Asked if Dr. Beamish had compensated for landed value in graphs? Said graphs reflect market value. Beamish said graphs may not be totally accurate but reflect the general situation. T. Buck Suzuki Foundation speaker: Spoke of policy issues regarding fresh water, of water licenses given out in perpetuity, of the rate of forest cut, of pollution permits. Asked what fresh water policies do we need to look at? Beamish emphasized importance of fresh water. Vicki Husband, Sierra Club: Thanks him for coming but finds it disturbing that FOC (DFO) only recognizing is a problem now. There have been research cuts, older scientists have retired. We need to send a strong message to Chretien that the government must do more David Suzuki Foundation speaker: DFO advocates fish farms, which are a threat to wild salmon. John Nightingale: What research is needed? On genetics? Stock assessments? Modelling techniques? Beamish: need to look at how we spend research dollars, need to study the ocean, need a better balance. Howard Paish? Are we doing anything to protect aberrant stocks? LUNCH PANEL 2: "What is the most alarming potential impact of climate change on salmon stocks?" Mr. Arnie Narcisse, Aboriginal Fisheries Commission, Dr. David Welch, Mr. Frank Whitney, FOC, Sidney. Arnie Narcisse: Impacts are already happening. The Aleutian low means salmon must travel 7 to 9 days more and get back late. I keep thinking of a song by Chris Reid called Song on the Road to Hell; it keeps running through my mind. People say, "It’s the weather. What can we do?" There is talk of sanctuaries but there is already contamination in the snow packs and it will come down to the rivers and lakes. Late returns of salmon meant they met high flows at Hell’s Gate. That happened in 1997. Years of high exploitation also cause declines in salmon runs; it is not only climate change. 1. The salmon are forced further north. 2. They arrive late to above average water flows caused because too many trees were cut down. 3. 40% of the forest will disappear. Greenhouse gases are leading us down the road to destruction. Increased runoff means scouring of gravel beds. There will be more rain on snow events. A 3% temperature increase will shorten the incubation period. If we lose this resource, my children and grandchildren will lose. We need to increase FishRBC dollars. We need a green tax on greenhouse gas emissions. Comments and questions: Paul George, Western Canada Wilderness Committee: Some say fish farms can replace wild fish. Is this ok? Warming increases susceptibility of farm fish to disease. 10,000 Adams Lake fish died and we don’t know why. Jean Cavanaugh, David Suzuki Foundation: We have heard urgency from you. Scientists say there is need for proof. Can we wait? Arnie Narcisse: There is no time to wait. The bottom is falling out now. Scientists are reluctant to stick their necks out. Frank Whitney: Have studied climate signals in the northeast Pacific Ocean. A distinct warming trend is affecting zoo and phytoplankton. There is less nutrient to support the biomass. Coastal waters have the highest productivity. We have a research station, P26, out in the ocean and we have 40 years of data collected from there. Since 1950 there is a temperature rise of .02 Celsius per year on the coast, is less in the open ocean, but all data show warming. There are fewer nutrients because the warm water caps the nutrients and doesn’t bring them to the surface. There is nutrient depleted water now in a crescent along the continental shelf and slope from Vancouver Island to all around Alaska. This is the area where juvenile fish spend time. Dr. David Welch, FOCS, Nanaimo: The broader picture is much more serious. Salmon follow temperature limits. If temperature increases continue, by 2050 the entire species of Pacific salmon will move out of the Pacific Ocean and up to the Chukchi Sea. Those are our salmon that now stay in the Gulf of Alaska. There will be complete loss of habitat. Now the salmon are coming back smaller with fewer eggs and less energy. The eastern North Pacific was never limited by nitrate. Now it is. Starting around 1990 there has been a change in ocean survival. Climate was stable for 900 years but there has been a rapid increase from 1900 on. Comments: Terry Glavin: Gulf of Georgia – smolts have to go through heated up and contaminated body of water. PANEL 3: What is the best strategy to adopt? Dr. Carl Walters, UBC. Fred Fortier, Aboriginal Fisheries Commission. Bud Graham, Asst. Deputy Minister, BC Ministry of Fisheries. Gerry Scott, Climate Action Team, David Suzuki Foundation. Ms. Lydia Dotto, Peterborough, ON, author of Storm Warning. Dr. Carl Walters: There are domino effects of declining marine survival rates which are 1/5 of what they were. Coastal environmental survival rate for small salmon is the big problem. 1) Diseases pass from hatcheries and fish farms 2) New predators 3) Reduced food supply/productivity 4) Is unlikely they can move if the water is too warm 5) Correlation studies cannot be relied on 6) No concerted field program. Can we find mortality causes? No. Can 1) Pray for adaptation-every surviving fish should be allowed to spawn 2) Make massive research investment to follow fish and find out what killing them 3) Patience-not fish again like Newfoundland Opportunity 1) Switch to selective gear 2) Clear hatcheries not answer Fred Fortier-No indigenous people invited to Conference on the Seas. Big question for PFRCC is how to get scientific information out. Are problems at Hell’s Gate—need to fix migration route. Need incentives and disincentives for corporations re global warming. There is no need to wait for scientific proof; we need facts and then debates; we need research strategies and international agreements with US, Japan, Russia, Canada with all taking responsibility. We must remember our spiritual connection to Mother Earth. Bud Graham-Has been continued decline in fish coming back to rivers in Smith Inlet even though has not been fishing. There is trouble in the Interior. Need to enforce Fish Protection Act. Need to gene bank. Gerry Scott-Canada uses as much fossil fuel as the whole continent of Lydia Dotto: Her talk was so forceful and engrossing that I did not take notes but listened and learned. Climate change is upon us. It is happening. The idea that we must have more scientific proof is a trap. We must reduce greenhouse gas emissions now to mitigate future effects. Everyone should read her book, Storm Warning. Communities should get together and bring her here to speak. She will not be available until June.
End Note: Why preserve biodiversity of small stocks? "They can also serve as repositories for ancient and invaluable genetic information that may well prove crucial in providing adaptability in a changing environment." Dr. Rick Routledge, Institute of Fisheries Analysis, SFU in Speaking for the Salmon, Workshop Record, June 1, 1999.
GLOBAL WARMING & CLIMATE CHANGE "The scientific community agrees that human activity is changing our climate. Increased concentrations of ‘heat-trapping’ gases such as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are raising temperatures and shifting weather patterns. Historical temperature trends indicate that the average global temperature has increased by 1° C in the past 135 years. Even more disturbing are regional temperature increases. For example, in the Canadian Arctic, average 1998 temperatures were 5° C above normal and spring is now occurring a week earlier than it did just a decade ago. To help reduce the potentially devastating consequences of climate change, Canada agreed at a 1997 United Nations conference in Kyoto, Japan, to cut greenhouse gas emissions to six per cent below 1990 levels in the period 2008-2012. This is far less than the 60-80 per cent reductions scientists argue are necessary, but it is an important first step. Unfortunately, while some countries have started to reduce emissions, Canada has failed to act and our emissions are still increasing by 1.5 per cent annually. Canada is currently the second highest per capita producer of greenhouse gases and the highest per capita consumer of energy in the world." Quoted from David Suzuki Foundation publication Canadian Solution: Practical and Affordable Steps to Fight Climate Change. Translate this page automatically.
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